Is democracy also in lockdown?

In a royal decree issued on the 6th of May 2020, HM King Abdullah II practiced his constitutional obligation by ordering the proroguing of the ordinary session of parliament. With the coronavirus pandemic majorly paralysing the country, the future of the next parliamentary elections hangs in the balance due to the limitations on the candidates abilities to campaign and the heavy burden of ensuring the public’s health and safety during the voting process. Despite the fact that the numbers indicate that the pandemic is receding in Jordan, there is a big chance they will go back up again due to the return of expatriates and students to the Kingdom where their release from quarantine will coincide with the Eid holiday that is usually accompanied by social gatherings, making the public health situation uncertain for the upcoming months. The royal decree, however, did not tackle the topic of the termination of the current parliament nor the upcoming elections, meaning that either another statement will be issued within the coming few weeks announcing the dissolution or extension of the current parliament, or the matter may be kept on hold until the end of the parliamentary term in September. Each of these three scenarios holds potential benefits and threats to Jordan’s local democracy and may change the way campaigning is conducted forever.

Scenario I: Business As Usual - HM dissolves the parliament.

A royal decree may issue the order of terminating the parliament’s term in the coming days and calling for elections within four months allowing Jordanians to elect their nineteenth parliament by September. According to the constitution, the Al Razzaz government will be forced to resign within a week of the dissolution of the parliament.

The golden question here is whether it would be wise to replace the Prime Minister in such exceptional circumstances. Even though history showed us many incidents, where leaderships were changed in the midst of crisis through democratic processes and succeeded. For example PM Churchill who was elected during WWII and won the war against Germany at a time when his predecessor was unable to deal with the crisis at hand. But let us not forget that Jordan is not Britain as Jordan lacks well-established political parties, a strong parliament, and most importantly, a prime minister with full authority. Therefore, keeping AlRazzaz government for a longer period may be the wiser approach as his cabinet has been managing the crisis since it started.

The biggest disadvantage of dissolving the parliament at this point is that Jordan could end up in September with a house of representatives that is overpowered by vote-buyers and lacking politicians and partisans since the Kingdom will go through a difficult economic situation. On one hand, politicians will face many challenges to raise funds to support their campaigns, and on the other, the phenomena of vote buying will most probably increase. In addition to that, many people will avoid ballots to protect themselves from coronavirus. Therefore, this scenario proves to be unfavourable.

Scenario II: The parliament receives an additional term

According to the constitution, the king has the right to prolong the term of the parliament for a year or two. The first and last time a parliament was prolonged was in 1967 due to the war with Israel, as the country could not hold elections in the west bank.

Prolonging the term of the current house of representatives will most probably not be received positively by Jordanians as the general public is not pleased with several laws that were passed by the current parliament such as the income tax law and others and would therefore prefer electing a replacement. However, it is no surprise that their performance is not satisfactory to the public as, similar to its predecessors, the current parliament is a result of a population that majorly lacks awareness on the importance of participating in elections and is even frightened to discuss political life publicly. This is primarily the fault of the government for limiting freedom of expression and their strong control on political parties over the years.

This scenario will give better opportunities to candidates and political parties to work on forming electoral lists and programs to run next year, as elections are much more than simply casting a vote in a ballot. Elections include campaigning, lobbying and establishing links with the constituents and grassroots, which is currently hindered by the prohibition of public gatherings.

During an online discussion session held by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation entitled "Elections and parliament in the Time of Corona ... Who cares," former MP, Rula Alfarra Alhroob, Secretary General of the stronger Jordan Party, said that the upcoming elections will be very difficult for political parties, especially that meetings and physical communication with voters will be almost impossible to be held even if the curfew ends, which eventually will force candidates to try non-traditional methods such as using social media platforms to campaign. Alhroob also added that social media is a good tool for reaching grassroots but still did not prove its effectiveness to convince voters to go to the polls.

Assuming that the king prolongs the life of the current parliament for a year, there still is a chance that the world would suffer from a second wave of the Coronavirus pandemic next year, meaning that Jordan would face the exact same situation it is in now but a delay in the practice of democratic life. Therefore, this scenario is a risk not worth taking. This leaves us with the third and final scenario.

Scenario III: the current parliament completes its full term

According to the constitution, the term of the parliament shall be four calendar years. Therefore, if the royal decree did not issue any statement regarding the dissolution of the current parliament, it will be able to complete its full term that ends in September 2020, at which point the king must announce the election date within four months or the parliament meets again automatically.

This scenario could be the least harmful due to the current situation as it avoids holding the election this summer to protect the public health and prevent any delay in exercising Jordanians’ most basic democratic right, voting. Moreover, it will give the opportunity to candidates and parties to lobby and shape their allies and running lists. Additionally, it will give the government more time to prepare for the elections and develop proper health safety measures that may reassure the public and encourage them to participate.

Therefore, according to this scenario, Jordanians will elect their new parliament between December and January. The advantage of this scenario is that it will give the opportunity for the parliament to hold an extraordinary session to discuss many of the outstanding laws, the most important of which is the Local Administration Law, which will play a major role next year in the municipal and governorates councils elections.

Yet, it’s worth to mention that conducting the elections in the winter will affect the participation rate for several reasons partly due to the fact that the percentage of Jordanian expatriates who are back in the country in the winter is much lower than in the summer, and the bad weather will limit election rallies that are usually conducted in outdoor public areas.

However, despite the drawbacks of this scenario it remains the most viable option with the least disadvantages, particularly because it will set the first precedent in the history of Jordan for a parliament that completes its full term.

Ultimately, all these scenarios are in the hands of one person; the king, as he is the one who has the final say according to the constitution. In all cases, the government's ability to deal with the elections file should not be difficult. If the government, with the support of startups, managed to organize major sectors such as education, banking and commerce during the coronavirus crisis, it will definitely be able to manage the electoral process in innovative ways as well by opening the doors to individual initiatives to contribute with solutions that could enhance the democratic process.

The coronavirus crisis has restricted the freedom of the citizens. A further restriction of practicing their basic democratic right would be a tragedy worth avoiding, as without a parliament, there will be no representation of the people’s will, which will contribute to a lack of transparency and monitoring over the government's performance, especially in difficult circumstances such as the one we currently live in.